Market Trends: Continued Drop in Commodity Keeps Wholesale Flat...What’s Next?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
We thought that last week’s increase in average Commodity price was going to drive up average Wholesale price this week. That did happen in a couple of categories, but overall average Wholesale was only up 0.97%. It’s likely that was flattened out by the 5.85% drop in average Commodity with some huge drops in certain categories.
We saw average Wholesale price drop in 7 categories this week, including all Produce categories. Shell Eggs (-5.05%) saw the biggest drop followed by Fresh Bell Pepper (-3.41%), Fresh Potato (-2.51%), Fresh Onion (-2.24%), Fresh Lettuce (-1.94%), Chicken Breast (-1.31%), and Chicken Wing (-0.90%). There are a number of reports about early harvesting and burnt crops due to the recent heat waves, so this drop in Produce may be temporary with likely significant increases later in the summer.
Beef and Pork both saw average Wholesale prices spike after last week’s Commodity jumps. The largest increase is in Ground Beef (+6.68%) with big increases in Pork Loin (+6.46%) and Pork Shoulder (+5.96%). We see smaller increases in Beef Strip Loin (+1.56%) and Cod (+1.86%).
Average Commodity price fell 5.85% this week with every category dropping. This likely means we’ll see broad decreases in Wholesale next week, but as mentioned above there are lots of warning signs about the potential for significant Produce price increases due to shortages. Take advantage of the lower prices while you can.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +21.8% | +11.5% | +1.5% |
| Shell Eggs | +65.1% | +7.9% | -5.0% |
| Pork Loin | +93.4% | +5.7% | +4.5% |
| Pork Shoulder | +18.6% | +42.0% | +22.6% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -2.6% | -7.5% | -19.8% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +43.5% | +32.4% | +7.9% |
| Chicken Breast | +22.8% | +3.2% | +0.9% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +39.5% | +6.1% | -0.4% |
| Fresh Onion | +46.4% | +1.0% | -5.5% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -8.0% | +8.1% | +9.7% |
| Chicken Wing | +10.6% | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| Cod | +45.6% | -16.5% | +3.5% |
| Wholesale | +39.7% | +8.1% | -1.1% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
As expected, Wholesale jumped 6.68% this week after last week's Commodity bump. Commodity fell 2.83% this week so look for Wholesale to come back down next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-5.05%) continued to follow Commodity (-18.66%) down. The big drop in Commodity means Wholesale should drop even more near term.
Pork Loin
Commodity (-0.01%) stayed flat but Wholesale (+6.46%) unexpectedly jumped. If Commodity stays flat, we expect Wholesale to settle as well.
Pork Shoulder
Another drop in Commodity (-5.12%) but Wholesale (5.96%) spikes. High demand driving up the market? It will be hard for Wholesale to continue to increase if Commodity stays flat.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (-2.21%) dropped and appears to have taken Wholesale (-1.94%) unexpectedly with it. If Commodity continues to be down to flat look for Wholesale to follow.
Fresh Potatoes
Even with signs of supply issues, Commodity dropped 1.74% and Wholesale dropped 2.51%. Would expect that to be a blip and both to head back up next week.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-1.31%) came down as expected and Commodity (-2.62%) continues to fall which should bring Wholesale down next week too.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wow! Huge drop in Commodity (-18.99%) pulls Wholesale (-3.41%) down as well. Expect both of these to head back up in the coming weeks.
Fresh Onion
An unexpected drop in Commodity (-5.67%) brought Wholesale down 2.24%. Would expect flat to up near term.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (+1.57%) increased slightly, following last week's Commodity bump. Commodity is down 4.37% this week which means Wholesale should fall next week.
Chicken Wing
Commodity (-7.84%) saw a huge drop and the lowest price in 4 years! Wholesale (-0.90%) came down slightly. We might see some continued decrease in Wholesale, but the start of football season is going to start to push up the average price.
Cod
Wholesale (+1.86%) did increase as expected, though maybe not as much as we thought. Commodity (-3.54%) drops which should lead to Wholesale being flat to down near term.
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