Market Trends: Average Wholesale Prices Fall 3.15%, Take Advantage as Increases are Likely Next Week
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Average Wholesale prices bounced down after last week’s increase with 7 categories dropping and just mild increases in 5 categories. The most significant drops are in categories that spiked last week. Still, a long way to go on a Year over Year basis, with Wholesales prices being up 30% in Pork, 20% in Chicken, and 25% in Produce in the last 12 months. Beef remains an outlier, down 12% Year over Year.
The biggest average Wholesale drop is in Pork Loin (-10.16%) with other big drops in Beef Strip Loin (-8.74%), Pork Shoulder (-6.08%), and Chicken Wing (-2.98%). We saw smaller drops in average Wholesale price for Fresh Lettuce (-1.97%), Shell Eggs (-1.47%), and Cod (-0.12%).
Smaller increases this week with Fresh Onion (+1.94%) going up the most followed by Fresh Potato (+1.05%), Chicken Breast (+0.99%), Ground Beef (+0.73%), and Fresh Bell Pepper (+0.37%). The only one of these categories likely to drop next week is Chicken Breast.
The average Commodity price is up 3.77% this week and 8 categories saw Commodity increases. Additionally, the Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase in Food from June to July. All of this is pointing toward a likely increase in Wholesale prices next week.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +6.9% | -0.9% | +0.1% |
| Shell Eggs | +74.1% | +9.3% | +4.4% |
| Pork Loin | +61.9% | +1.9% | -16.0% |
| Pork Shoulder | +8.4% | +30.9% | +27.5% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -17.9% | -4.9% | -10.5% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +59.3% | +43.2% | +11.0% |
| Chicken Breast | +23.7% | +6.6% | -2.8% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +43.7% | +6.7% | +5.8% |
| Fresh Onion | +59.0% | -5.3% | +8.3% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -18.1% | +3.9% | +8.9% |
| Chicken Wing | +15.4% | +2.6% | -1.4% |
| Cod | +36.6% | -21.3% | +0.2% |
| Wholesale | +38.6% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (+0.73%) stayed relatively flat as expected but a big spike in Commodity (+9.21%) points to a corresponding jump next week in Wholesale.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-2.24%) dropped this week and kept Commodity (-1.47%) down instead of the expected increases. Look for Wholesale to follow Commodity again next week.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-10.16%) rebounded back down after last week's spike. Commodity (+0.43%) is flat so expect Wholesale to be pretty flat near term.
Pork Shoulder
As expected, Wholesale (-6.08%) drops big. Commodity (-2.17%) also dropped and that likely means Wholesale will be flat to down next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (-1.97%) drops again even though Commodity (+3.34%) saw a large increase. Expect Wholesale to be up next week.
Fresh Potatoes
The price climb continues due to a supply shortage as we wait for a new crop to come in. Wholesale is up 1.05% and Commodity spiked 6.20%. Prices will continue to climb near term, so maybe look at minimizing your usage or raising your prices appropriately.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (+0.99%) is up slightly even with another drop in Commodity (-1.75%). Commodity should pull Wholesale back down in the coming weeks.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (+0.37%) didn't come down as expected, but at least stayed flat. Likely kept up by the increase in Commodity (+3.62%). Likely that Commodity continues to trend up and Wholesale follows.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (+1.94%) went up as expected after last week's Commodity jump. Commodity (+0.10%) stayed flat this week so look for Wholesale to mirror.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-8.74%) yo-yos back down after last week's spike. Commodity (+5.79%) jumps significantly so look for Wholesale to be up again next week.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-2.98%) dropped as predicted and another drop in Commodity (-7.50%) should lead to more decreases next week.
Cod
Wholesale (-0.12%) stayed relatively flat but a big jump in Commodity (+12.18%) should push Wholesale up significantly next week.
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