Market Trends: Wholesale Beef Now Up 9% Year over Year, Commodity Produce Continues to Climb
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
There definitely is not a slowdown in costs in the Wholesale or Commodity market right now, as we see average Wholesale price up 4.48% and average Commodity up 1.64%. One of the bright spots for restaurant and foodservice operators was that Beef was lower than the previous 12 months for most of this year...that’s now changed as a recent increase has pushed Wholesale Beef up 9% over last year at this time and up 22% (!!!) in the past 3 months. On the positive side, Wholesale Chicken is starting to come back down (largely driven by the drop in Wing prices), dropping 2% in the past month and down 1% from 3 months ago.
Ten categories so average Wholesale prices this week. The Beef Strip Loin average Wholesale jumped 13.08% and there were large increases in Pork Shoulder (+7.07%), Ground Beef (+5.90%), Cod (+4.95%), and Pork Loin (+3.58%). There are smaller increases in Fresh Lettuce (+1.03%), Chicken Breast (+0.65%), Fresh Bell Pepper (+0.56%), Fresh Potato (+0.55%), and Fresh Onion (+0.23%).
Chicken Wing (-1.07%) continues to see an average Wholesale drop. The only other category to join it this week is Shell Egg which fell 2.33%. There may be a few more categories in this group next week as average Commodity prices fell in Pork Shoulder, Ground Beef, and Beef Strip Loin.
The average Commodity price in Produce is up 5.34% this week, so we are still expecting that Produce Wholesale prices are going to increase. It will likely be a mixed bag in other categories with more of the price volatility we’ve come to expect. If the price increases in some of your products are too much to handle, make sure you are checking for deals on different brands and pay attention to the normalized price.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +12.9% | +8.9% | +4.9% |
| Shell Eggs | +43.8% | +5.0% | -14.1% |
| Pork Loin | +135.2% | +21.9% | +23.3% |
| Pork Shoulder | +32.8% | +36.9% | +10.6% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -19.5% | +6.5% | +1.2% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +44.0% | +36.9% | +1.0% |
| Chicken Breast | +25.4% | +3.2% | +1.7% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +41.1% | +3.3% | -2.3% |
| Fresh Onion | +46.0% | -2.5% | +0.2% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +7.9% | +28.4% | +8.0% |
| Chicken Wing | +9.6% | -5.4% | -6.7% |
| Cod | +53.3% | -15.7% | +5.8% |
| Wholesale | +34.0% | +6.5% | -4.8% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (+5.90%) unexpectedly bounced back up as Commodity (-5.22%) continued to fall. Look for Wholesale to be down to flat next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-2.33%) came down again, but Commodity (+0.40%) has flattened out. Wholesale will likely be flat to up short term.
Pork Loin
Compared to last week, this is flat? Wholesale is up 3.58% and Commodity is up 2.47%. That means Wholesale will likely continue to increase.
Pork Shoulder
Significant price increases haven't slowed down demand yet. Wholesale jumped 7.07% even as Commodity fell 14.68%. Have to think this will pull Wholesale down next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Another double digit percentage increase in Commodity (+14.07%) but Wholesale (+1.03%) is only up slightly. Expect Wholesale to spike soon.
Fresh Potatoes
As expected, the increases continue with Wholesale up 0.55% and Commodity up 4.28%. Look for the Wholesale increase to be larger next week.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (+0.65%) didn't come down as expected but did stay relatively flat. Commodity (0.00%) is flat this week which means Wholesale should stay that way too.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Another big jump in Commodity (+9.84%) while Wholesale (+0.56%) only increase slightly. The increase in Wholesale is coming...so be ready.
Fresh Onion
Commodity (-7.85%) bounced back down after last week's big spike. That likely helped keep Wholesale (+0.23%) flatter than expected. Would look for Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Ouch! Wholesale spikes 13.08% after Commodity's increase last week. Commodity (-3.52%) dropped this week so expect Wholesale to be flat to down near term.
Chicken Wing
Commodity (-0.30%) and Wholesale (-1.07%) continue to fall. Wholesale still is 9% higher than where it was last year at this time, so decreases could continue...but we wouldn't bet on it.
Cod
Commodity rocketed up 21.20% which drove Wholesale up 4.95%, instead of the drop we expected. We think both will be flat to up next week.
If you want to easily compare prices on similar products as you shop, try our free Smart Shopping Assistant browser extension.