Market Trends: Wholesale Jumps 3.21%, What’s Driving Pork Prices?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Average Wholesale price increased 3.21% this week with increases across almost every product category. Pork and Shell Eggs were the biggest drivers, with both categories going up more than 8% week over week. That’s despite Commodity Pork being down almost 5%. While Chicken and Beef are both up as well, they are a comparative bargain next to the massive increases in Pork which is now up almost 50% in the past 12 months!
For another week, Pork leads our increases in average Wholesale price with Pork Shoulder up 8.68% and Pork Loin up 8.61% followed by Shell Eggs (+8.40%), Fresh Bell Pepper (+3.90%), Fresh Lettuce (+3.81%), Beef Strip Loin (+3.20%), Fresh Potato (+2.54%), and Chicken Breast (+1.70%). There are smaller increases in Chicken Wing (+0.94%) and Cod (+0.35%).
Only two categories saw decreases in average Wholesale price, with Fresh Onion dropping 3.73% and Ground Beef coming down 1.61%.
The average Commodity price is down 4.94% and seven of the product categories saw drops in average Commodity price. But based on what we are seeing in Pork, that doesn’t necessarily mean a corresponding drop in Wholesale prices for restaurant and food service operators. Expect next week to be a mix of increases and decreases with the general trend to be flat to up.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | -4.1% | +0.3% | -2.6% |
| Shell Eggs | +45% | +13.5% | +8.1% |
| Pork Loin | +166.4% | +34.8% | +15.7% |
| Pork Shoulder | +54.2% | +82.6% | +22.8% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -4.8% | +3.9% | +4.7% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +74.9% | +15.2% | -2.8% |
| Chicken Breast | +25.8% | -5.6% | -1.8% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +47.1% | +5% | -0.5% |
| Fresh Onion | +5.3% | +2.5% | -0.5% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +11.6% | +33.1% | +14.5% |
| Chicken Wing | +4.9% | -9.6% | -2.7% |
| Cod | +38.7% | -14.2% | -0.6% |
| Wholesale | +35.4% | +11.9% | +6.9% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
There must be some excess inventory, as Wholesale (-1.61%) is down again this week. Commodity (+0.69%) is up for the second week, so look for Wholesale to come back up soon.
Shell Eggs
Despite a slight drop in Commodity (-0.35%), Wholesale rocketed up 8.40% unexpectedly. We expect Wholesale to flatten back out unless there is a significant increase in Commodity in the future.
Pork Loin
We continue to be wrong on this one, as Wholesale (+8.61%) spikes again while Commodity (-4.34%) continues to fall. We would expect this to start to impact demand and bring prices back down...but that hasn't happened yet.
Pork Shoulder
Another category where Wholesale (+8.68%) is moving inversely to Commodity (-5.18%). When will this impact demand enough to bring them back in line?
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (+3.81%) jumped as expected and another increase in Commodity (+3.38%) means you should expect your Wholesale prices to continue to rise.
Fresh Potatoes
While Commodity (-3.96%) did drop as expected, Wholesale (+2.54%) unexpectedly increased. Wholesale should be flat to down unless we see a completed decoupling from Commodity here as well.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (+1.70%) increased as predicted and the increase in Commodity (+3.65%) means it should continue to increase short term.
Fresh Bell Pepper
An unexpected spike in Commodity (+6.59%) drove Wholesale (+3.90%) up as well. With likely supply issues due to heat, look for price increases to continue.
Fresh Onion
A drop in Commodity (-6.40%) pulled down Wholesale (-3.73%) as well. Would expect prices to be more flat to up than down in the coming weeks.
Beef Strip Loin
Despite another big drop in Commodity (-7.67%), Wholesale (+3.20%) continues to climb. This may be another case of players trying to gain some margin, so this is a product category where you may want to shop for bargains.
Chicken Wing
As expected, Wholesale (+0.94%) increased and Commodity (+0.61%) continued to as well. With seasonal demand, look for these both to increase gradually throughout the fall.
Cod
Both Wholesale (+0.35%) stayed pretty flat but a big drop in Commodity (-18.55%) means there should be an upcoming drop in Wholesale.
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