Market Trends: Wholesale Pulls Back, Commodity Produce Still Up 2%
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
After three straight weeks of increases in average Wholesale price, it drops 3.17% this week. In a reversal of last week, ten categories saw drops in average Wholesale price, with just two increasing. While that's good news for restaurant operators this week, compared to last year we are still looking at some big increases with Beef up 8%, Pork up 62% (!!!!), Chicken is up 17%, and Produce is up 23% in average Wholesale price.
Ground Beef continues to see an increase in average Wholesale, going up 1.63%. The only other category to increase is Shell Eggs (+0.69%). We’re expecting a few more categories to be in this bunch next week.
Pork Loin (-7.73%) finally stopped its ascent and we also see big drops in average Wholesale price for Cod (-6.40%), Beef Strip Loin (-5.53%), Chicken Breast (-1.82%), and Chicken Wing (-1.82%). There are smaller decreases in Fresh Potato (-1.24%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-0.87%), Fresh Lettuce (-0.72%), Pork Shoulder (-0.48%), and Fresh Onion (-0.44%).
Even though the average Commodity price dropped 2.24%, seven Commodity categories saw increases which means this decrease in Wholesale is likely a blip. Look for prices to head back up next week and definitely take a look at if you need to keep Pork on the menu with those price increases being 3x-7x higher than other Meat categories.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +13.1% | +10.7% | +5.8% |
| Shell Eggs | +38.9% | +5.7% | -12.2% |
| Pork Loin | +112.6% | +12.5% | +26.7% |
| Pork Shoulder | +28.9% | +36.3% | +17.2% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -16.4% | +5.7% | +2.5% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +47.6% | +35.2% | -1.3% |
| Chicken Breast | +24.5% | +1.3% | -1.1% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +40.7% | +2.4% | -3.5% |
| Fresh Onion | +56.3% | -2.9% | -2.1% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +6.1% | +21.3% | +11.8% |
| Chicken Wing | +8.5% | -6.8% | -5.2% |
| Cod | +44.2% | -21.1% | -0.9% |
| Wholesale | +30.4% | +4.9% | -4.0% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Must be a big demand for burgers, as Wholesale (+1.63%) continues to climb despite a drop in Commodity (-0.16%). We've been wrong the past couple of weeks, but we're going to stick with calling for flat to down next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (+0.69%) up slightly as expected. With Commodity (+3.75%) seeing continued increases, look for Wholesale to increase more significantly short term.
Pork Loin
High Wholesale prices may have affected demand, as Wholesale (-7.73%) took a big drop this week even as Commodity (+1.30%) went up. We expect Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Pork Shoulder
Slight drop in Wholesale (-0.48%) with Commodity jumping 2.39%. Would look for Wholesale to be flat to up near term.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (-0.72%) continues to stay relatively flat despite another increase in Commodity (+2.58%). Expect Wholesale to trend up.
Fresh Potatoes
We didn't see the increase in Wholesale (-1.24%) we expected. Commodity (0.00%) stayed flat so Wholesale will likely be flat next week unless there is a big swing in Commodity.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-1.82%) finally came down while Commodity (+0.97%) is up slightly. Still a big gap between the two, so predicting that Wholesale will be flat to down next week.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Did not see the jump in Wholesale (-0.87%) we expected and Commodity (-3.94%) came down even further. Wholesale is likely flat to down short term.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (-0.44%) stayed relatively flat as expected. Commodity (+11.34%) saw a huge jump. Expect Wholesale to increase next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-5.53%) rebounded back down after last week's big jump and Commodity (-9.79%) fell again. Wholesale will likely follow next week.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-1.39%) drops again, but Commodity (0.00%) seems to have stabilized. Expect seasonality to start to drive Wholesale back up.
Cod
Wholesale (-6.40%) and Commodity (-3.65%) fell unexpectedly this week. Would expect that to reverse in the week to come
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