Market Trends: Spike in Pork Loin Drives Up Wholesale, Commodity Produce Points to Another Big Jump
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Average Wholesale prices bounced back up after the drop last week, especially in Produce. Our Wholesale Price Index went up 1.85% while the Commodity Price Index dropped 1.99%, mainly driven by drops in some high dollar proteins and Shell Eggs.
Eight categories saw an increase in average Wholesale price this week. Pork Loin shot up a stunning 24.50% (maybe time for restaurant operators to temporarily take Pork Loin off the menu?) with large, but not that large, increases in Fresh Lettuce (+4.24%), Pork Shoulder (+3.83%), Beef Strip Loin (+3.01%), Fresh Potato (+1.95%), and Chicken Breast (+1.40%). There are small increases in Fresh Onion (+0.30%) and Fresh Bell Pepper (0.18%).
Fewer categories dropped this week, but there are some significant ones. Ground Beef's average Wholesale price fell 7.86% followed by Shell Eggs (-5.99%), Chicken Wings (-1.88%), and Cod (-0.94%). Commodity prices were down in all of these categories as well, so it’s likely that they continue to be flat to down near term.
The big thing for restaurant and food service operators to look out for is the coming shortage in Produce we mentioned last week. We saw huge increases in average Commodity prices across our Produce categories which means that Wholesale is going to spike soon. Keep an eye on your margins on Produce heavy menu items.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +11.9% | +2.7% | -2.8% |
| Shell Eggs | +50.4% | +5.9% | -11.4% |
| Pork Loin | +136.0% | +34.6% | +26.0% |
| Pork Shoulder | +23.0% | +50.0% | +15.3% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -11.7% | +2.3% | -3.3% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +43.7% | +41.0% | +2.4% |
| Chicken Breast | +24.8% | +4.6% | +0.4% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +40.2% | +3.6% | +0.4% |
| Fresh Onion | +44.5% | +1.4% | -1.0% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -5.7% | +10.0% | +8.6% |
| Chicken Wing | +11.3% | -6.7% | -5.1% |
| Cod | +34.9% | -15.4% | +1.9% |
| Wholesale | +34.3% | +5.8% | -3.9% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (-7.86%) came down as expected and Commodity continued to fall. Look for Wholesale to be down to flat next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-5.99%) and Commodity (-14.40%) continue to fall sharply. Past supply issues from avian flu must be pretty much resolved. Still 50% above last year, so room to continue to fall.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (+24.50%) rockets up even though Commodity was only up 1.59%. Would think that this would drive down demand and flatten Wholesale out soon.
Pork Shoulder
Commodity (-0.39%) continued to drop, but somehow Wholesale (+3.83%) continues to increase. Similar to Pork Loin, this is likely to drive down demand and Wholesale is likely to flatten unless Commodity jumps.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (+13.33%) definitely didn't stay flat. Wholesale is "only" up 4.24%, but look for that to jump significantly next week due to the Commodity increase.
Fresh Potatoes
Last week's drop was a blip and Wholesale (+1.95%) and Commodity (+2.97%) both increased this week. Look for those increases to continue.
Chicken Breast
Commodity (-0.55%) continued to fall, but Wholesale (+1.40%) unexpectedly increased. The gap between Commodity and Wholesale is one of the largest we've seen, so we expect Wholesale to begin to come back down.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Big jump in Commodity (8.21%) means the small increase in Wholesale (+0.18%) is going to be much larger next week.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (+0.30%) is flat as expected, but a massive spike in Commodity (+13.45%) means that Wholesale is going to jump next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Commodity (+3.75%) jumped this week which kept Wholesale (+3.01%) from going down as expected. If Commodity continues to increase look for Wholesale to follow.
Chicken Wing
Time to purchase and freeze a bunch of wings? Wholesale drops 1.88% and Commodity fell 4.78%. Wholesale is still up year over year, so it may continue to fall short term. Increases are somewhere out there.
Cod
Wholesale (-0.94%) fell as expected. A big drop in Commodity (-16.69%) should pull that down even further next week.
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