Market Trends: Prices Slide Across the Board, is a Slide in Restaurant Traffic the Cause?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
After wholesale prices jumped two weeks in a row, prices finally dropped (-3.82%) with eight of the twelve categories seeing a decrease. The decreases were all in proteins and eggs while all increases were in produce. While the size of the drop was surprising, it may be due to restaurant traffic dropping 15 weeks in a row.
The drop was led by a huge decrease in Pork Loin (-16.94%) and Cod (-14.92%) prices. There were also smaller (but still significant) drops in Beef Strip Loin (-8.20%), Chicken Breast (-7.63%), Ground Beef (-6.25%), and Pork Should (-3.93%). There were also small drops in Shell Eggs (-0.76%) and Chicken Wings (-1.00%).
Wholesale prices would have dropped even more on average if it weren’t for a sharp increase in produce. The increase was led by a huge spike in Onion (+15.93%) and Bell Pepper (+9.68%) prices. There were also significant jumps in Lettuce (+2.49%) and Potato (+4.52%) prices.
Average commodity prices were down overall (-1.17%) but we still saw increases in seven of the twelve categories. Based on this week’s commodity data we expect more of a mixed bag next week with Wholesale prices staying close to flat on average.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +8.7% | -11.5% | -6.4% |
| Shell Eggs | +94.4% | +0.3% | +1.6% |
| Pork Loin | +30.5% | +6.1% | -16.1% |
| Pork Shoulder | -6.9% | +3.2% | -17.4% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +6.7% | -18.8% | +8.8% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +9.6% | +26.6% | +20.1% |
| Chicken Breast | +60.8% | +5.3% | -1.5% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +35.8% | +1.7% | +6.9% |
| Fresh Onion | +52.8% | +12.9% | +9.5% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -16.2% | -22.9% | -10.4% |
| Chicken Wing | +34.8% | +5.8% | +1.8% |
| Cod | -13.6% | -20.8% | |
| Wholesale | +47.8% | -2.2% | -1.0% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
We were off on this one, wholesale dropped (-6.25%) despite commodity raising (+1.26%). Look for wholesale to rise over the coming weeks.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale was mostly flat (-0.76%) while commodity rose significantly (+8.25%). Expect an uptick in wholesale next week.
Pork Loin
Wholesale unexpectedly dropped significantly (-16.94%) while commodity was slightly down (-1.19%). It appears that wholesale prices have returned to their standard price gap with commodity so expect wholesale prices to be mostly flat.
Pork Shoulder
We missed here as wholesale prices continued their downward slide (-3.93%) despite commodity going up (+3.77%). Expect a correction next week with wholesale prices increasing.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale was up (+2.49%) despite commodity decreasing slightly (-1.18%). Wholesale still has room to increase as prices still haven't fully reacted to the large jump in commodity in June.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale continued to go up (+4.52%) while commodity was up slightly (+1.54%). Expect wholesale to be flat or up next week.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale dropped significantly (-7.63%) in response to the major drop in commodity (-17.78%). Look for wholesale to continue going down next week unless the trend in commodity reverses.
Fresh Bell Pepper
We were off on this one, wholesale jumped again this week (+9.68%) while commodity increased more moderately (+2.34%). Expect wholesale to be down next week.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale had a surprising spike this week (+15.93%) while commodity was mostly flat (+0.65%). Expect wholesale to be down next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale dropped significantly this week (-8.20%) despite commodity staying mostly flat (-0.48%). Look for a correction next week with wholesale prices rising.
Chicken Wing
As expect wholesale came down slightly this week (-1.00%) while commodity was mostly flat (-0.31%). Expect wholesale to be mostly flat next week.
Cod
Despite the large increase in commodity (+9.92%) wholesale had a major price drop (-14.92%). Expect a correction next week with a major increase in wholesale prices.
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