Market Trends: Ouch! Average Wholesale Up 2.38%, But Two Categories Still Dropped
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
After last week’s big jump in average Commodity prices, we were afraid this was going to happen, and it did with nine Wholesale categories seeing an increase. These increases were across the board of Beef, Pork, Poultry, and Produce. Increases in Wholesale greatly exceeded corresponding increases in Commodity, which makes it even more painful.
There were market indications that a big jump in Chicken Breast (+9.69%) was coming, and boy did it. We also see huge increases in average Wholesale price for Chicken Wing (+7.59%), Fresh Potatoes (+7.58%), Ground Beef (+7.52%), Fresh Bell Pepper (+5.96%), and Fresh Lettuce (+5.27%). There were smaller increases in Shell Eggs (+2.15%), Pork Loin (+1.39%), Fresh Onion (+0.80%), and Cod (+0.48%).
We have two outliers that dropped this week and might provide some product cost relief. Beef Strip Loin's average Wholesale price dropped 5.56% and Pork Shoulder dropped 5.46%. The general Beef category continues to be down (-4%) YoY while Chicken (+55%!), Pork (+25%), and Produce (+21%) are elevated from where they were last year at this time.
Average Commodity price trends were more of a mixed bag with seven increasing and five decreasing. Based on that expect next week’s Wholesale to be flat to slightly up compared to this week’s pricing. With all of the big Wholesale increases this week, finding potential deals becomes even more important. Here are the best deals we are finding right now.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +16.0% | -8.7% | -0.3% |
| Shell Eggs | +99.8% | +14.5% | +0.9% |
| Pork Loin | +55.8% | +32.6% | +15.5% |
| Pork Shoulder | -4.9% | +10.7% | +0.9% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +8.5% | -26.3% | +3.1% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +18.3% | +22.7% | +19.0% |
| Chicken Breast | +77.7% | +19.2% | +8.7% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +27.1% | +3.1% | -1.8% |
| Fresh Onion | +33.3% | -5.4% | -1.6% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -10.2% | -13.1% | -5.4% |
| Chicken Wing | +35.1% | +5.9% | +0.4% |
| Cod | -1.4% | -2.1% | |
| Wholesale | +52.8% | +7.8% | +1.4% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Grilling season demand anyone? Wholesale spiked 7.52% this week and Commodity jumped 1.60%. Expect a continued general upward trend, but hopefully not as steep as this week.
Shell Eggs
Commodity (0.00%) stayed completely flat, but Wholesale increased 2.15%, likely driven by larger market forces. Look for flat to up in the near term.
Pork Loin
As predicted, Wholesale (+1.39%) increased but much less than last week's big jump. Commodity (+2.12%) was up more which means Wholesale will continue up next week.
Pork Shoulder
We missed here as Wholesale (-5.46%) dropped again even as Commodity rose another 4.65%. The gap between the two is near its minimum so Wholesale should start to follow Commodity again.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (+5.27%) jumped following last week's huge Commodity increase. Commodity (-3.03%) did come back down, but there is still room for Wholesale to be up to flat.
Fresh Potatoes
Last week's Commodity increase drove up Wholesale (+7.58%) while Commodity (+0.50%) stayed flat. Expect Wholesale to be up to flat near term.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (+9.69%) did more than follow last week's Commodity increase. Commodity (-0.86%) actually came down so look for Wholesale to level out next week.
Fresh Bell Pepper
As we thought, Wholesale (+5.96%) increased this week. Commodity (+0.98%) stayed flat. Expect Wholesale to flatten out as well.
Fresh Onion
Less volatility here than in other categories. Wholesale (0.80%) is pretty flat this week and with Commodity (-1.13%) going down slightly look for Wholesale to follow next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Big drop in Wholesale (-5.56%), which was unexpected. Commodity (-0.67%) stayed flat. Look for Wholesale to be flat to down.
Chicken Wing
Larger market trends blew up last week's prediction with Wholesale spiking 7.59%. Commodity (-0.70%) trended down so that should help pull down Wholesale, even if it continues to increase.
Cod
Continued volatility in Commodity (+12.68%) but Wholesale (+0.48%) surprisingly stayed flat. Have to expect that Wholesale will jump next week.
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