Market Trends: Average Wholesale Index Stays Flat, But Commodity Points to Change
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Our Commodity Index is up 2.41% WoW, but the average Wholesale Index (-0.21%) is just barely down. How is that possible in this inflationary environment? Data points to the 11th straight week of a drop in restaurant traffic. This is likely causing slower than planned turnover for distributors and helping keep prices down in a number of categories. We see a drop in average Wholesale price in 6 categories while 5 categories increased. Nine Commodity categories saw average price increases, so be ready to pay more in the coming weeks.
Produce saw the most Wholesale decreases this week led by Fresh Lettuce (-5.69%) followed by Fresh Potato (-4.27%) and Fresh Onion (-0.11%). We also saw drops in Shell Eggs (-4.23%), Pork Loin (-2.22%), and Pork Shoulder (-1.71%).
There weren’t as many categories with increases, but the bump in the high dollar value Beef Strip Loin (+1.23%) kept the overall average essentially flat. We also saw increases in Chicken Wing (+3.21%), Fresh Bell Pepper (+2.63%), Chicken Breast (+0.08%), and Ground Beef (+0.03%).
While Produce and Pork Wholesale prices were down this week, you may be trying to figure out how to deal with the increases in Chicken and Beef this week. There are some opportunities for savings with different brands or frozen options if that works for your kitchen.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +1.1% | -10.2% | -4.0% |
| Shell Eggs | +63.0% | +31.9% | -4.4% |
| Pork Loin | +70.4% | +23.5% | +12.2% |
| Pork Shoulder | -16.6% | -7.8% | +2.5% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -10.9% | -22.5% | -14.9% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +47.7% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Chicken Breast | +31.1% | +11.6% | +4.3% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +39.3% | +18.3% | -5.7% |
| Fresh Onion | +73.7% | -7.4% | -2.9% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -20.1% | +0.1% | -13.9% |
| Chicken Wing | +23.2% | +9.0% | +6.4% |
| Wholesale | +32.2% | +16.5% | -3.9% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
A bounce back this week with increases in both Wholesale (+0.03%) and Commodity (+1.15%). With the larger increase in Commodity and summer upon us, expect Wholesale to trend upward.
Shell Eggs
We didn't see the bounce in Wholesale (-4.23%) we expected and Commodity (-1.17%) dropped again. If Commodity continues to drop then Wholesale will likely follow.
Pork Loin
The continued increase in Wholesale potentially created some sell-through issues, as it finally drops 2.22% this week. Commodity (+3.33%) headed up, which means Wholesale will be flat to up next week.
Pork Shoulder
Drops in both Wholesale (-1.71%) and Commodity (-2.26%) this week. Expect Wholesale to continue to follow Commodity and be relatively flat.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (-5.69%) followed the drop in Commodity last week. Commodity (+1.35%) is up slightly, which points to Wholesale being flat to up next week.
Fresh Potatoes
A bigger drop in Wholesale (-4.27%) than expected. Commodity (+0.20%) is up slightly which should flatten out Wholesale in the near term.
Chicken Breast
Smaller increase in Wholesale (+0.08%) than expected and Commodity only increased slightly (+0.75%). Would expect general trends to continue to push prices higher near term.
Fresh Bell Pepper
An increase in Wholesale (+2.63%) as expected and an even bigger jump in Commodity (+12.55%) means we'll see continued increases next week.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (-0.11%) had a slight drop as expected. Commodity (+0.20%) is pretty flat. Expect Wholesale to be similar next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (+1.23%) jumped as expected and an even bigger increase in Commodity (+4.42%) points to more increases in Wholesale. Beef may be on the rise but still is a deal YoY compared to others.
Chicken Wing
The climb in Wholesale (+3.21%) continues and a bump in Commodity (+3.23%) means that the increase is likely to continue.
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