Market Trends: Yo-Yo Continues, Average Wholesale Drops...But Beef Jumps
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
As so often has been the case, last week’s big jump in the average Wholesale price index is followed by a snap-back, with the average Wholesale price index decreasing 0.91% this week. The drop would have been even bigger with 8 categories going down, but an increase in Beef Strip Loin helped flatten the average. Pork and Chicken remain up Quarter over Quarter (15.46% and 8.22% respectively) and Month over Month (4.42% and 3.69%) while Beef and Produce are down over the same periods.
Cod shows the volatility of Seafood with a 17.98% (!) drop in average Wholesale price. The other categories that decreased this week are Pork Loin (-11.79%), Pork Shoulder (-3.46%), Fresh Onion (-3.11%), Chicken Wing (-2.33%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-2.31%), Shell Eggs (-1.94%), and Ground Beef (-1.79%).
The big increase this week is with the high $/lb Beef Strip Loin (+4.92%), but we also saw increases in Fresh Potatoes (+5.30%), Fresh Lettuce (+2.76%), and Chicken Breast (+1.14%).
The average Commodity price index is slightly up, increasing 0.38%. It is a mixed bag for Commodity prices at the category level, so next week’s Wholesale index could be slightly up to slightly down. Either way, there are still some great deals to be found from your existing vendors like 42% off Chicken Breast based on the brand.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +7.0% | -11.3% | -6.9% |
| Shell Eggs | +24.6% | +31.3% | -11.0% |
| Pork Loin | +70.3% | +16.4% | +1.2% |
| Pork Shoulder | -5.3% | +14.3% | +8.7% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -42.9% | -31.3% | -5.2% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +30.7% | +12.4% | +10.0% |
| Chicken Breast | +38.1% | +14.2% | +5.2% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +32.5% | +4.5% | -1.9% |
| Fresh Onion | +57.1% | -10.0% | +0.4% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -18.1% | -2.0% | +0.4% |
| Chicken Wing | +20.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% |
| Cod | -12.8% | -19.0% | |
| Wholesale | +15.0% | +14.8% | -6.0% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
An unexpected drop in Wholesale (-1.79%) and a slight increase in Commodity (+0.39%). Look for prices to stay relatively flat near term.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-1.94%) continues to come back down to earth. Commodity (-0.38%) is down just slightly so we expect Wholesale to soon flatten.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-11.9%) comes down sharply after the big increase last week. Commodity is up 1.85%. Expect Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Pork Shoulder
Last week's increase may have dulled demand and we see Wholesale (-3.46%) come back down and Commodity (-1.50%) drop as well. We lean towards down to flat next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (-0.15%) is flat as expected, but Wholesale jumped 2.76%. Look for Wholesale to flatten out next week.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (+5.30%) and Commodity (+0.90%) increased as expected. Likely that they continue to increase, but probably not as sharply.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (+1.14%) increased as expected while Commodity stayed completely flat. Some data is pointing to another spike, so be ready for more increases.
Fresh Bell Pepper
A big drop in Commodity (-10.43%) brought down Wholesale (-2.31%) instead of the expected increase. If Commodity continues to drop, Wholesale will follow.
Fresh Onion
One of these things is not like the other...Wholesale (-3.11%) drops while Commodity (+18.74%) has a huge increase. Obviously expect a big jump in Wholesale next week.
Beef Strip Loin
A small increase in Commodity (+0.23%) but a big jump in Wholesale (+4.92%). Unless Commodity has a big increase, expect Wholesale to be flat to down in the future.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-2.33%) drops again and Commodity is completely flat. Look for Wholesale to stay flat near term as well.
Cod
Big drop in Wholesale (-17.98%) as it follows Commodity (-4.45%) down. We wouldn't expect it to continue to drop in the current environment, so look for it to be flat to slightly up next week.
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