Market Trends: Is a Drop in Restaurant Traffic Driving Down Wholesale?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Instead of an increase, we saw an average Wholesale price drop of 1.05%. You have to think that the 10th consecutive week of a decrease in traffic is leading to decreased purchasing and forcing distributors to lower some prices. We saw 6 categories drop in average Wholesale price and 5 categories increase. The differences in categories may be enough that restaurants should look at modifying menus. Beef is DOWN 11.59% in the last 12 months while Pork is up 24.72%, Chicken up 29.16%, and Produce up 20.0%. The biggest outlier is Shell Eggs, up 66% last 12 months for Wholesale, so if there are opportunities to reduce volume it will help your bottom line.
Fresh Potatoes (+5.40%) saw the biggest jump in average Wholesale price followed by Chicken Wing (+3.61%), Pork Loin (+2.57%), Chicken Breast (+1.95%), and Fresh Lettuce (+0.82%). Definitely keep an eye out on Chicken Breast, as Commodity is up 11.97% You may want to check out if there are less expensive alternatives.
The average Wholesale price dropped for Fresh Onion (-8.26%), Ground Beef (-5.16%), Shell Eggs (-3.82%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-2.87%), Beef Strip Loin (-2.44%), and Pork Shoulder (-2.35%). If we continue to see a drop in restaurant traffic, there may be just as many categories in the negative next week.
The average Commodity price is up 0.82% this week and there were increases in 6 categories, some quite large. This would seem to indicate that Wholesale prices will rise in the future, but this is definitely being counterbalanced by challenges with restaurant traffic.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +14.3% | -8.5% | -4.6% |
| Shell Eggs | +65.9% | +32.7% | +4.6% |
| Pork Loin | +81.2% | +18.6% | +14.9% |
| Pork Shoulder | -13.0% | -14.1% | +3.7% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -25.5% | -9.5% | -1.7% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +83.0% | +9.7% | +4.3% |
| Chicken Breast | +35.7% | +9.9% | +4.7% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +36.4% | +23.3% | -2.2% |
| Fresh Onion | +85.9% | +5.5% | -0.3% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -19.1% | -6.4% | -9.6% |
| Chicken Wing | +22.4% | +4.3% | +3.8% |
| Wholesale | +35.2% | +16.6% | +2.2% |
| Wholesale Without Eggs | +9.7% | +1.2% | -0.5% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Another drop in Commodity (-2.42%) reverses the trend on Wholesale (-5.16%). Looks like Commodity may continue down which will pull down Wholesale if restaurant traffic doesn't improve.
Shell Eggs
Continue to see a yo-yo effect with Wholesale as it drops 3.82% after last week's increase. An increase in Commodity points toward Wholesale bouncing back up next week.
Pork Loin
Last week's decrease in Commodity is wiped out by an increase of 4.6% this week. Wholesale (+2.57%) continues to climb. If able, you may want to look at other ingredients.
Pork Shoulder
Wrong on this one. Instead of heading up, both Commodity (-2.06%) and Wholesale (-2.35%) fell. Wholesale has been tracking Commodity recently, maybe small changes either direction next week?
Fresh Lettuce
As expected, Wholesale (+0.82%) flattened out. Wholesale dropped 4.37% and we expect Wholesale to follow next week.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (+5.40%) continued to rise. Commodity (+0.25%) flattened a bit which likely means Wholesale will be flat to down near term.
Chicken Breast
A slightly smaller increase in Wholesale (+1.95%) this week as predicted, but a big spike in Commodity (+11.97%). Look for a similar spike in Wholesale next week. Time to increase the price of those menu items?
Fresh Bell Pepper
We see one more week of decreases in Wholesale (-2.87%). Commodity (4.78%) bounces back up, which indicates a rise in Wholesale soon.
Fresh Onion
Last week's steep drop in Commodity brings Wholesale (-8.26%) way down. Another drop in Commodity (-2.61%) should lead Wholesale down next week too.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-2.44%) drops as expected. Commodity (+0.35%) reversed course. Expect Wholesale to be flat to up near term. Still one of the better deals compared to other categories taking into account price increases.
Chicken Wing
One of the outliers in Wholesale and Commodity trends. Commodity (-6.97%) drops big while Wholesale (+3.61%) jumps again. If the apparent demand continues, Wholesale may increase, though you have to think it will flatten out.
If you want to easily compare prices on similar products as you shop, try our free Smart Shopping Assistant browser extension.