Market Trends: Wholesale Slightly Down...Bump in Commodity Means Change Coming
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Decreases in Beef and Pork help keep the average Wholesale Price Index slightly down this week, despite five categories seeing increases. The average Commodity Price Index is up 2.39% and nine categories have Commodity, so look for Wholesale to head in the other direction soon. In summary categories, Beef and Pork Wholesale are down from 12, 3, and 1 month ago but their Commodity is up in the past month. Produce has turned around and both Wholesale and Commodity are down from a month ago though still up significantly from 3 months and 12 months prior. Chicken Wholesale is up from last month and Commodity continues to be elevated.
Shell Eggs continue to be the category with Wholesale increases as it is up 3.94% this week. The rest of the increases are relatively small with Cod up 0.66% followed by Fresh Lettuce (+0.33%), Fresh Onion (+0.23%), and Chicken Wing (+0.12%).
Pork Loin (-3.14%) and Pork Shoulder (-2.91%) have the two biggest drops in Wholesale with significant drops also in Fresh Potato (-2.01%), Beef Strip Loin (-1.49%), Ground Beef (-1.04%). Chicken Breast (-0.64%) and Fresh Bell Pepper (-0.33%) Wholesale are down just slightly.
Nine categories have increased in Commodity prices which means restaurant operators will likely see their Wholesale prices increasing this week or next, specifically in Chicken, Fresh Onion, Beef Strip Loin, and Fresh Bell Pepper.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | -11.7% | -5.5% | -0.2% |
| Shell Eggs | +99.8% | +34.9% | +9.4% |
| Pork Loin | +97.7% | -44.1% | -13% |
| Pork Shoulder | +70.2% | -43.2% | -6.1% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +9.4% | +47.4% | -4.4% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +51.5% | -6.3% | -5.7% |
| Chicken Breast | +27.1% | -0.3% | +1.9% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +17.5% | -2% | -2.7% |
| Fresh Onion | +55.5% | +8.4% | -0.2% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -16.6% | -25% | -0.9% |
| Chicken Wing | -6.9% | -10.5% | -1.5% |
| Cod | +31.3% | +8% | +0.5% |
| Wholesale | +10.1% | -16.1% | -2.7% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (-1.04%) drops more than expected as Commodity (-1.02%) is also down. We expect flat to down at least in the short term.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (+3.94%) jumps again and outpaces Commodity (+0.51%). Look for these trends to continue.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-3.14%) unexpectedly continues to drop while Commodity stays flat (-0.15%). It's likely that Wholesale is flat to up next week.
Pork Shoulder
Wholesale (-2.91%) takes a big drop. But the bump in Commodity (+1.81%) means a probably increase next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (+0.33%) actually has a slight bounce even with another huge drop in Commodity (-13.19%). The fact that distributors likely ate some margin the past month means that Wholesale may be slow to follow Commodity back down.
Fresh Potatoes
Commodity (+0.86%) bumps up again but Wholesale (-2.01%) continues to come down. We expect flat to down in the near term.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-0.64%) continues to trend slightly down while Commodity (+0.93%) rises. Be ready for Wholesale to increase soon.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-0.33%) remains flat to down as predicted. A spike in Commodity (+2.59%) points to a likely increase in Wholesale next week.
Fresh Onion
Commodity (+37.93%) bounces back huge after recent drops. Wholesale (+0.23%) isn't hugely impacted yet, but look for it to be up next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-1.49%) drops as expected but a big bump in Commodity (+6.27%) means you'll see increases in Wholesale next week.
Chicken Wing
The gap continues to close as Wholesale (-0.64%) comes down and Commodity (+0.93%) goes up. Stand by for the correction...some time.
Cod
As predicted, Commodity (+10.27%) takes a big bounce and Wholesale (+0.66%) trends up slightly. Look for flat to down in Wholesale this week.
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