Market Trends: Drop in Commodity Keeps Wholesale Flat...What’s Next?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
We see an unexpected 2.6% drop in our average Commodity Price Index this week, which helps to keep the average Wholesale Price Index (-0.56%) slightly down. The fact that foot traffic is down month-over-month is also likely contributing to lower prices as distributors look to maintain sell-through. Beef (-17%), Pork (-37%), and Chicken (-3%) are all down from last quarter, though only Beef is lower than a year prior. Produce (-3%) has come down in the last month but is up 15% for the past quarter and 24% since last year.
Only two categories see an increase in average Wholesale price with Shell Eggs up 2.52% and Fresh Bell Pepper up 1.03%. With Commodity being down in both of these categories, the increases will likely reverse soon.
Ten categories see a drop in average Wholesale price this week. Fresh Potato (-3.30%) has the biggest drop followed by Fresh Lettuce (-2.39%), Fresh Onion (-2.28%), Ground Beef (1.80%), Pork Loin (-1.71%), and Pork Shoulder (-0.94%). There are smaller drops in Chicken Wing (-0.63%), Chicken Breast (-0.63%), Cod (-0.32%), and Beef Strip Loin (-0.15%). Some of these, like Fresh Lettuce, are likely to continue to drop with corresponding decreases in Commodity prices.
It does look like there might finally be some softening in Wholesale prices, as inflation comes down in some of the associated costs (fuel, labor, etc...). One category we would keep an eye out for in menu pricing is Chicken, as Commodity is pointing up.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | -10.7% | -6% | +1.2% |
| Shell Eggs | +92.2% | +40.7% | +11.3% |
| Pork Loin | +104.1% | -37.3% | -22.6% |
| Pork Shoulder | +75.4% | -36.5% | -6.8% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +9.1% | +52.5% | -4.5% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +54.6% | -2% | -4.1% |
| Chicken Breast | +27.9% | +2.1% | +6.4% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +17.9% | +2.1% | -2.5% |
| Fresh Onion | +55.1% | +4.1% | +2.4% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -15.3% | -21.4% | -9.6% |
| Chicken Wing | -7% | -9.7% | -3.7% |
| Cod | +30.4% | +7.7% | +1.9% |
| Wholesale | +11.3% | -12.3% | -5.4% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (-1.80%) and Commodity (-1.26%) dropped more than expected. Look for both to be up to flat next week as long terms Beef trends point towards increases.
Shell Eggs
Still, no apparent drop in demand as Wholesale (+2.52%) increases again as Commodity (-0.20%) stays flat. We don't see anything changing this trend near term.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-1.71%) drops again. An increase in Commodity (+0.25%) means Wholesale will likely be up to flat next week.
Pork Shoulder
Wholesale (-0.94%) and Commodity (-0.50%) are down slightly. Expect both to be flat to down near term.
Fresh Lettuce
Finally, a drop in Commodity (-13.99%) that also brings a drop in Wholesale (-2.39%). We see more drops in the future, though likely not as large.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (-3.30%) comes down after last week's drop in Commodity. Commodity (+0.40%) is up slightly this week, so look for Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Chicken Breast
Another week with a (slight) decrease in Wholesale (-0.63%) despite an increase in Commodity (+0.48%). Wholesale should start increasing soon.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Delayed Wholesale (+1.03%) bump from the Commodity increase at the beginning of the month? The decrease in Commodity (-0.86%) points to Wholesale being flat to down next week.
Fresh Onion
Commodity (-3.11%) drops again, which pulls Wholesale (-2.28%) down as well. There still is room for Wholesale to follow Commodity down further, so we see more decreases than increases in the short term.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-0.15%) drops as expected and a drop in Commodity (-1.07%) means you should see another drop next week.
Chicken Wing
Commodity (+4.30%) continues to increase while somehow Wholesale (-0.63%) decreases. This small of a margin gap can't last so expect your Wholesale prices to go up significantly soon.
Cod
Commodity (-4.63%) drops which keeps Wholesale (-0.32%) lower than expected. We predict both go up next week.
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