Market Trends: Average Wholesale Prices Drop 1.53%, but Commodity Points to Coming Increase
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Average Wholesale prices increased in 6 categories, but larger absolute decreases in the other 5 categories drove the overall average Wholesale price down 1.53% this week. Commodity prices also had mixed changes this week, but the overall average Commodity price is up 3.78%, which indicates we’ll see Wholesale increases coming.
The biggest Wholesale price increase is Pork Shoulder (+28.14%) followed by Pork Loin (+8.49%), Ground Beef (+4.89%), Fresh Pepper (+2.35%), and Chicken Breast (+2.07%). Commodity prices were mixed across these categories, so next week’s trends will depend on the category.
Shell Eggs average Wholesale price saw the biggest drop (-10.98%) with big drops also in Beef Strip Loin (-6.72%), Fresh Potatoes (-8.00%), Fresh Lettuce (-3.95%), and unexpectedly Chicken Wings (-2.54%).
This is another week of little immediate correlation between Commodity and Wholesale price trends. As we get past a few one-time significant drivers (are you taking the Rams or the Bengals?), we’d look for these to come back in line with historical trends.
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale is up 4.89%, but the bigger news is Commodity going up 10.63% for the second big jump in three weeks. Expect Wholesale to see bigger increases next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale dropped more than expected (-10.98%), but Commodity saw a big jump (+16.06%). Wholesale is likely to see a big jump next week.
Pork Loin
As expected, Wholesale (+8.49%) followed Commodity's increase last week. Commodity was up again (+5.76%) so long for Wholesale to continue up.
Pork Shoulder
Wholesale must expect a big demand for BBQ...even though Commodity is down (-2.27%) for the third week in a row, Wholesale spiked 28.14%. Have to think that Wholesale will come back down in coming weeks.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale came down (-3.95%) following Commodity last week. Commodity went up 7.11% this week. Expect Wholesale to trend up from here.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale dropped 8.00% and Commodity went down 19.07%. Wholesale should continue down next week.
Chicken Breast
Big increase in Commodity (+15.25%) drove Wholesale higher as well (+2.07%). That Commodity increase will likely continue to push up Wholesale next week.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Even with Commodity going down again (-3.30%), Wholesale somehow goes up 2.35%. Can't expect that Wholesale will continue up unless there are serious distribution challenges.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale went up (+0.34%) as expected. Commodity went up as well (+1.55%), so that will likely continue to drive Wholesale up.
Beef Striploin
Wholesale fell 6.72% unexpectedly while Commodity continued to increase (+2.50%). Would expect Wholesale to bump back up.
Chicken Wing
No Chicken Wing sticker shock here. Commodity dropped 1.22% and Wholesale dropped 2.54%. Look for prices to be flat to down after the big game.
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