Market Trends: Huge Jumps in Wholesale Pork and Beef Prices Drive Average Up 7%!
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
The up and down price volatility continues. After last week’s drop, the average Wholesale price index rocketed up 7% driven primarily by Pork increasing 19% (!!!) and Beef going up 11%. Eleven categories saw average Wholesale prices increase. There is a bit of good news, in that average Commodity price dropped in 9 categories.
You may want to remove any Pork Loin dishes from the menu this week as the average Wholesale price spiked 26%. There were big increases also in Shell Eggs (+14%), Ground Beef (+12%), Beef Strip Loin (+11%), and Pork Shoulder (+10%). What normally would be big increases but are small this week include Chicken Breast (+7%), Fresh Lettuce (+6%), Fresh Potatoes (+3%), and Cod (+0.4%).
Your best margins this week will be in Chicken Wings, as Wholesale dropped 2%. We also saw big drops in Fresh Onion (-16%) and Fresh Bell Pepper (-6%). Average Commodity dropped in all three of these as well, so you should be able to expect prices to stay flat to down.
The typical trend is for prices to increase, potentially reduce demand (which with continued decreases in foot traffic is already an issue), and then a short-term decrease in price as inventory sell-through decreases. With the added downward pull of average Commodity prices dropping across most categories, we can hope that this massive spike will come back down to earth in the coming weeks. In the meantime, see if there are some opportunities to find deals on the products that are hitting you the hardest.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +6.8% | -0.7% | +6.5% |
| Shell Eggs | +67.8% | +14.2% | +17.7% |
| Pork Loin | +78.7% | +30.2% | +19.8% |
| Pork Shoulder | -22.6% | +22.4% | -5.6% |
| Fresh Lettuce | -6.2% | -4.7% | +12.0% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +44.5% | +21.6% | +17.2% |
| Chicken Breast | +29.1% | +11.7% | +4.2% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +36.1% | -2.9% | +2.8% |
| Fresh Onion | +49.4% | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -24.9% | -11.0% | -5.0% |
| Chicken Wing | +17.6% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Cod | +33.5% | -14.3% | -3.1% |
| Wholesale | +33.9% | +9.3% | +10.8% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Big jump in Wholesale (+11.71%) and with Commodity (+5.19) increasing as well, look for the prices to continue to go up.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (+13.59%) increased as expected and there was another huge increase in Commodity (+21.53%). That means higher prices next week too.
Pork Loin
Ouch! Wholesale spikes 25.94% even though Commodity fell 1.82%. We would expect this to be a short term spike and that Wholesale should be flat to down near term.
Pork Shoulder
The correction came with Wholesale increasing 10.34%. Commodity (+7.47%) continued to steeply climb so expect Wholesale to follow.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (+5.78%) followed the past increase in Commodity, but Commodity (-22.83%) took a big drop. Should see Wholesale come down next week.
Fresh Potatoes
In this market Wholesale (+2.79%) does actually look pretty flat! The drop in Commodity (-4.19%) should help pull Wholesale even more flat to down in the future.
Chicken Breast
We are either seeing huge demand or some potential profit maximization as Wholesale jumped 6.98% even though Commodity (-5.71%) again. Have to think that this is going to slow down sales and hopefully bring Wholesale back in line with Commodity.
Fresh Bell Pepper
As expected, Wholesale dropped 6.06% and Commodity (-0.84%) stayed pretty flat. Look for Wholesale to be flat next week.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (-16.36%) dropped after last week's spike and Commodity (-12.15%) had a big drop as well. That should keep Wholesale down to flat.
Beef Strip Loin
As predicted, Wholesale (+11.19%) bounced back in a big way. Commodity (-1.01%) continued to drop which should pull down Wholesale next week.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-2.10%) dropped more than expected while Commodity (-0.66%) stayed pretty flat. Wholesale will likely be flat to down near term.
Cod
No big jump in Wholesale (+0.35%) while Commodity (-17.14%) took a big swing down. That should bring Wholesale down as well.
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