Market Trends: Average Wholesale Drops Again! Look out for Fresh Lettuce Increases
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
The average Wholesale price index fell 1.32% this week, which is in line with what we thought last week. Eight categories dropped, but a couple of large increases in other categories blunted the impact of all those drops. A number of large drops in certain categories will be very welcome by operators. Pay attention to the commodity trends though, because they are headed in the other direction.
Fresh Bell Pepper (-5.88%) saw the largest drop this week with Pork Shoulder (-5.77%), Ground Beef (-5.44%), Chicken Breast (-3.87%), and Fresh Onion (-3.30%) also going down significantly. There are smaller decreases in Chicken Wing (-2.12%), Fresh Lettuce (-1.82%), and Fresh Onion (-3.30%).
These were balanced with some large increases in Pork Loin (+12.94%) and Cod (+12.88%) with smaller increases in Shell Eggs (+2.22%) and Fresh Potato (+1.45%). All four of these categories saw increases in Commodity, so expect the trend to continue.
Average Commodity prices were up 2.87% with 9 categories seeing increases. This likely means we’ll see general Wholesale price increases next week. As a reminder, Beef remains down 1.32% YoY while Pork (+27.06%), Chicken (+44.01%), and Produce (+17.50%) are up significantly. Make sure you are adjusting your menu prices appropriately and be on the lookout for deals from your vendors.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +7.8% | -14.0% | -7.2% |
| Shell Eggs | +96.6% | +23.5% | -5.4% |
| Pork Loin | +54.0% | +31.3% | +11.4% |
| Pork Shoulder | +1.0% | +17.7% | +4.9% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +4.6% | -29.5% | -7.7% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +13.4% | +17.7% | +5.9% |
| Chicken Breast | +64.2% | +9.4% | -0.8% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +21.7% | +6.8% | -4.9% |
| Fresh Onion | +32.0% | -8.7% | -2.5% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -4.4% | -11.5% | +1.4% |
| Chicken Wing | +25.7% | -2.2% | -3.7% |
| Cod | -2.2% | -4.7% | |
| Wholesale | +50.3% | +10.6% | -3.1% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Commodity dropped 1.53% but an unexpected even bigger drop in Wholesale (-5.44%). This may be a short-term trend to deal with inventory issues and we expect prices to be flat to up near term.
Shell Eggs
There was a bounce in Commodity (+2.25%) and Wholesale (+2.22%) this week. Expect both to flatten out going forward as impacts of avian flu appear to be decreasing.
Pork Loin
We continue to see high volatility in Wholesale with a big jump of 12.94% after last week's big drop. Commodity is up 3.30%. Look for Wholesale to increase next week but at a lower rate.
Pork Shoulder
Big drop in Wholesale (-5.77%) to bring it closer to historical gap with Commodity. Commodity spiked 6.69% which will drive Wholesale up next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Yield and quality issues caused by excessive heat in the western US drove up Commodity by 34.33%! It hasn't hit Wholesale (-1.82%) yet, so expect a big jump in the next couple of weeks.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (+1.45%) increased slightly as expected but Commodity jumped 7.62%. Look for Wholesale to jump up soon.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-3.87%) dropped while Commodity went up 2.58%. Likely to see Wholesale follow it up next week.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-5.88%) drops again but we see Commodity (+7.11%) bounce back after last week's decrease. This should mean that Wholesale trends up in the near term.
Fresh Onion
We did not see the increase we expected in Wholesale (-3.30%) and Commodity decreased by 9.76% which likely means more decreases for Wholesale.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-1.45%) dropped as expected with Commodity (+0.92%) staying relatively flat. Should keep Wholesale flat next week.
Chicken Wing
Commodity (-1.22%) continues to trend gradually down and pulls Wholesale down 2.12%. We expect both to continue to be flat to down near term.
Cod
A huge increase in Commodity (+33.79%) drove up Wholesale by 12.88%. With how volatile this category is, hard to predict which way it will go next week, so keeping any menu items with Cod at "Market Price" is a recommended way to reduce the impact on you.
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