Market Trends: Rollercoaster Ride Continues, Average Wholesale Prices Drop 1.65%
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Volatility, yo-yo, rollercoaster, pick your term...we are definitely dealing with repeated swings in Wholesale and Commodity average prices. Last week we had a big jump in average Wholesale prices while there continues to be indications of falling restaurant traffic. Combined that can lead to fewer items purchased, excess inventory at the wholesale level, and then the need to drop prices to increase sell-through. With average Wholesale prices dropping in 7 of our categories this week, that is likely what we are looking at here.
Big drops in average Wholesale prices were seen in Beef Strip Loin (-7.57%) and Fresh Potatoes (-5.38%). There are slightly smaller drops across a wide range of product categories including Ground Beef (-2.20%), Chicken Wings (-1.96%), Shell Eggs (-1.50%), Fresh Lettuce (-0.78%), and Chicken Breast (-0.73%).
A couple of product categories still went up in average Wholesale price led by Fresh Bell Pepper (+6.40%). Fresh Onions (+4.34%), Pork Loin (+3.91%), and Pork Shoulder (+1.18%) are the others seeing increases.
When we have price snap-backs like this, we tend to see a small decrease to flat in the next week and then the continued march up if that is where the general market is trending. So, you might see one more week of relief before your costs head up again. Plan accordingly.
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Instead of the expected increase, Wholesale (-2.20%) followed Commodity (-5.36) down this week. Expect overall market forces to counterbalance the Commodity drop and Wholesale stays flat next week.
Shell Eggs
Commodity drops 3.42% which pulls Wholesale (-1.50%) as well. Look for Wholesale to continue to track with Commodity.
Pork Loin
Last week's Commodity increase drives up Wholesale 3.91%. Another increase in Commodity points to Wholesale going up next week as well.
Pork Shoulder
Commodity (+1.67%) increased, driving Wholesale (+1.18%) up as well. General pork trends seem to be up, so expect Wholesale to trend up with Commodity.
Fresh Lettuce
As expected, Wholesale (-0.78%) trended slightly down. Another big drop in Commodity (-3.54%) should lead to Wholesale trending down again near term.
Fresh Potatoes
This week's big decrease in Commodity (-4.14%) outweighed last week's Commodity increase and brought Wholesale (-5.38%) as well. Unlikely that Wholesale continues to drop, so look for it to flatten next week.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-0.73%) dropped slightly, but Commodity (+4.47%) jumped big. Expect a similar jump in Wholesale next week.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Still waiting for that correction in Wholesale (+6.40%) as it spikes again while Commodity (-3.35%) drops again. Would think that Wholesale has to come down soon, but in this market who knows?
Fresh Onion
A big jump in Commodity (+5.69%) drove up Wholesale (+4.34%) as well. Look for both to continue to trend up short term.
Beef Strip Loin
A drop in Commodity (-2.26%) but an even bigger decrease in Wholesale (-7.57%). Slow moving product? We expect flat to down next week.
Chicken Wing
Commodity (-4.80%) continues to drop. Wholesale (-1.96%) drops as well, but not as much as wholesalers likely are capturing some margin. Likely that prices stay flat to down.
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