Market Trends: Average Wholesale Prices Stay Flat...Drop in Demand Slowing Down Costs?
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
We follow up last week’s drop in average Wholesale price with a week where the average is flat, down just 0.22%. Zoom in though, and there is a lot of volatility. We see 6 categories with average price drops and 5 with increases, including a double digit jump. According to Black Box Intelligence, sales volume and traffic volume is down WoW, and you have to think that the decrease combined with all the past price increases is contributing to the cost curve flattening the past two weeks.
Pork Shoulder (+12.30%) sees the biggest increase this week. Fresh Onion (+3.47%), Chicken Wing (+2.24%), Beef Strip Loin (+0.60%), and Shell Eggs (+.31%) were the other categories which increased.
Again there were drops across produce and protein. Fresh Lettuce (-8.07%) has the biggest drop with Fresh Potatoes (-4.74%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-4.35%), and Pork Loin (-4.11%) also seeing significant decreases. Chicken Breast (-0.82%) and Ground Beef (-0.39%) were just down slightly.
It’s another week where Commodity prices and Wholesale prices are moving in different directions. Continued flat traffic may be a counter to increases in Commodity prices (+0.21%), but if we see demand go up, you have to think that Wholesale prices will follow Commodity.
Category Trends
Ground Beef
No bump in Wholesale (-0.39%) yet and a small drop in Commodity (-.99%) means Wholesale may stay flat next week as well.
Shell Eggs
Big drop in Commodity (-9.51%) helps keep Wholesale (-0.31%) flat. If Commodity continues to drop, look for Wholesale to follow.
Pork Loin
Increase in Commodity (+3.15) but big drop in Wholesale (-4.11%) means Wholesale will likely increase next week unless Commodity drops significantly.
Pork Shoulder
Wholesale (+12.30%) bounced back up big. Commodity (+3.15%) also increased but the gap is still smaller than the recent average so Wholesale could continue to increase.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (-4.25%) did not flatten out and Wholesale (-8.07%) followed. If Commodity continues to drop, Wholesale may as well, but watch for the gap to get back to average.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (-4.74%) came back down after the jump last week. With Commodity (-0.01%) flat look for Wholesale to do the same next week.
Chicken Breast
We didn't see the bump in Wholesale (-0.82%) we expected, but with Commodity (+16.61%) shooting up, look for Wholesale to jump soon.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-4.35%) dropped as expected, while Commodity (+0.12%) stayed flat. Expect Wholesale to be flat near term.
Fresh Onion
Wholesale (+3.47%) jumped while Commodity (+0.12%) stayed flat. Bigger gap than normal, so look for Wholesale to flatten.
Beef Strip Loin
As expected, Commodity (+2.24%) increased. Wholesale (+0.60%) stayed pretty flat. If Commodity continues to increase, Wholesale will follow.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (+2.24%) isn't flattening, even with another drop in Commodity (-2.31%). Demand may be allowing suppliers to maintain higher prices.
If you want to easily compare prices on similar products as you shop, try our free Smart Shopping Assistant browser extension.