Market Trends: Average Wholesale Price Stays Flat, But Commodity Volatility Points to Uncertainty
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
After three weeks of decreases in our average Wholesale Price Index, we see it be up just slightly this week even though seven categories saw drops. Increases in more expensive categories like Beef, Shell Eggs, and Pork outweighed the other drops. Beef (-20%) continues to be significantly less than last year while Pork (+94%), Chicken (+15%), and Produce (+29%) are significantly more.
No huge increases this week. Beef Strip Loin (+2.29%) is the biggest gainer followed by Shell Eggs (+2.27%), Pork Shoulder (+1.55%), Fresh Potato (+1.19%), and Ground Beef (+0.06%). Drops or small increases in average Commodity prices means these increases will flatten out or reverse in coming weeks.
Fresh Lettuce (-3.15%) sees the biggest drop this week. We also see drops in Fresh Onion (-1.19%), Chicken Wing (-1.0%), Pork Loin (-0.94%), Chicken Breast (-0.73%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-0.46%), and Cod (-0.30%). Most of these categories have large increases in Commodity prices this week so look for there to be a lot fewer products in this category next week.
We’re seeing a lot less volatility in Wholesale prices than Commodity the past couple of weeks, including smaller increases than usual after spikes in Commodity. This could point to a weakness in demand at the restaurant and foodservice that is forcing distributors to be less aggressive on pricing. With seven product categories seeing increases in Commodity prices this week, we expect more increases than decreases in Wholesale next week.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | -18.2% | -12% | -2.8% |
| Shell Eggs | +102.4% | +39.2% | +8.9% |
| Pork Loin | +109.2% | -28.9% | -18.8% |
| Pork Shoulder | +78.8% | -32% | +2.3% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +8.3% | +57.1% | +0.8% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +76.5% | -3.2% | +1.8% |
| Chicken Breast | +36.1% | +0.3% | +6.6% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +19.2% | -2.9% | -4.7% |
| Fresh Onion | +75.4% | +10.3% | +6.9% |
| Beef Strip Loin | -21% | -18.2% | -16.7% |
| Chicken Wing | -5.6% | -10.3% | -4.4% |
| Cod | +33.8% | +8.9% | +2.6% |
| Wholesale | +10% | -10.2% | -5.9% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Both Wholesale (+0.06%) and Commodity (-0.15%) stay relatively flat. Look for that to continue.
Shell Eggs
Even though Commodity (+0.25%) stays flat, we continue to see big increases in Wholesale (+2.27%). Expect your Wholesale prices to continue to outpace the Commodity market until there is a pushback in demand.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-0.94%) and Commodity (-2.57%) dropped this week as we continue to see the market come down from past highs. Expect flat to down next week.
Pork Shoulder
Commodity (+0.68%) is up slightly which pushes Wholesale (+1.55%) up even more. Still down significantly from past highs, so look for both to be flat to up next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (+5.01%) continues to rise, though less than previously. The drop in Wholesale (-3.15%) is likely driven by pushback in demand due to high prices. Commodity is likely to continue to rise and we'll have to see how Wholesale reacts.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (+1.19%) jumps despite a big drop in Commodity (-6.31%). Look for Wholesale to be down to flat next week.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-0.73%) drops slightly despite another big week of increases in Commodity (+4.76%). Look for your Wholesale price to start to increase soon.
Fresh Bell Pepper
A big drop in Commodity (-15.69%) pulls Wholesale (-0.46%) down slightly and means more decreases next week.
Fresh Onion
The roller coast continues in Commodity (+4.77%) which means that this week's decrease in Wholesale (-1.19%) should reverse next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Last week's increase in Commodity pushes Wholesale (+2.29%) up this week. Commodity (-4.74%) drops which means we should see Wholesale come down next week.
Chicken Wing
Loss leader? Wholesale (-1.0%) somehow drops even though Commodity (+13.04%) skyrockets. We have to see Wholesale start to increase soon.
Cod
Slight drop in Wholesale (-0.30%) but the spike in Commodity (+15.69%) points to Wholesale being up next week.
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