Market Trends: Wholesale Produce Jump 2%, Wholesale Proteins Continue to Fall
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Tale of two categories as climate challenges continue to drive Produce higher while Beef, Chicken, and Pork continue to come down after spikes earlier in the year. While Produce is down 2% in the past 12 months, it is up 12% in the past 3 months and 7% in the past month. There may be some sporadic relief as harvest seasons for other geographies come up, but increases are likely to continue through the winter. Meanwhile, we see drops in the past three months in Beef (-10%), Pork (-21%), and Chicken (-10%). All of this means that restaurant operators need to keep an eye on their ingredient costs so they price their menus taking into account pressures on prices and on their customers’ wallets.
Fresh Lettuce (+3.60%) continues to see the biggest increases in average Wholesale price followed by other Produce categories like Fresh Potato (+2.37%) and Fresh Bell Pepper (+2.37%). There are also Wholesale price jumps in Cod (+2.30%) and Shell Eggs (+1.25%).
Average Wholesale Price plummeted 18.27% in Pork Shoulder. There are also big drops in Beef Strip Loin (-8.26%), Chicken Wing (-2.61%), Chicken Breast (-2.20%), Ground Beef (-2.03%), and Pork Loin (-1.06%). The lone Produce category with a drop is Fresh Onion (-0.53%), which is just slightly down.
We see average Commodity prices up in 5 categories and down in 7, so it is likely going to be another mixed bag next week. We do expect Wholesale Chicken prices to begin to trend upward with continued increases in Produce categories.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +9.4% | -2.3% | +1.8% |
| Shell Eggs | +83.8% | +7.1% | -4.7% |
| Pork Loin | +55.2% | -12.4% | -14.7% |
| Pork Shoulder | +21.4% | -31.1% | -41.9% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +88% | +49% | +24% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +90.1% | -3.9% | +1.7% |
| Chicken Breast | +22.1% | -5.5% | -3.8% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +29.2% | -2.5% | -1.1% |
| Fresh Onion | +74.7% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +1.2% | -13.1% | -23.2% |
| Chicken Wing | +0% | -14.7% | -5.2% |
| Cod | +37.9% | +5.9% | +4.8% |
| Wholesale | +21.4% | -7.6% | -11.6% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Commodity (-2.42%) drops which pulls down Wholesale (-2.03%) instead of the expected increase. Watching other Beef Commodity trends, we expect Wholesale to be flat to up near term.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (+1.25%) up as expected. Commodity (-0.87%) is down slightly which points towards flat to down next week.
Pork Loin
Another drop in Wholesale (-1.06%) as predicted and the drop in Commodity (-1.27%) means you should expect more decreases coming up.
Pork Shoulder
Wholesale (-18.27%) continues to plummet. Commodity (-11.28%) has a similar fall, so even with the small gap, we expect Wholesale to drop again before likely flattening out.
Fresh Lettuce
Wholesale (+3.60%) jumps again and Commodity (+6.79%) is going to continue to push it up near term. The only likely relief is if Mexico's harvests can significantly increase supply.
Fresh Potatoes
An unexpected jump in Wholesale (+2.37%) even though Commodity (-1.51%) fell again. Look for Wholesale to be flat to down next week.
Chicken Breast
Surprise drop in Wholesale (-2.20%) even as Commodity (+4.25%) jumps. Have to think that Wholesale is going to head up if the Commodity increases continue.
Fresh Bell Pepper
As expected, Wholesale (+1.54%) jumps. A bigger jump in Commodity (+5.61%) points to a bigger Wholesale increase next week.
Fresh Onion
Commodity (-11.91%) continues to ping pong, while Wholesale (-0.53%) stays relatively flat. Look for Wholesale to be flat to up with a likely jump in Commodity.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-8.26%) takes a bigger drop than expected, even with Commodity jumping 8.76%. That increase will push Wholesale up next week.
Chicken Wing
Another big jump in Commodity (+12.48%) but somehow Wholesale (-2.61%) drops again. We've been wrong calling for it the past couple of weeks, but Wholesale has to jump sometime soon.
Cod
Wholesale (+2.30%) increases as predicted. A drop in Commodity (-7.83%) points to a drop in Wholesale coming up.
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