Market Trends: Drops in Wholesale Beef and Chicken Pull Down Overall Wholesale Market Despite Other Increases
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Wholesale market trends continue to be all over the place. While we see 7 categories with price increases including a 5% jump in Pork this week, our overall average Wholesale price index is down 1% this week. This is driven by a 7% drop in Beef and a 1% drop in Chicken. Definitely keep an eye on your specific ingredient costs and corresponding menu prices, because the impacts vary wildly depending on the product.
Pork continues to increase in average Wholesale price after decreasing for the past month. The biggest increase is in Pork Shoulder (+8.67%) followed by Pork Loin (+3.11%), Fresh Lettuce (+3.03%), Fresh Potato (+2.74%), and Fresh Onion (+2.00%). There are small increases in Cod (+0.35%) and Shell Eggs (+0.26%).
It’s a different story in Beef this week. Average Wholesale prices see big drops in Beef Strip Loin (-7.99%) and Ground Beef (-5.72%). We see smaller decreases in Chicken Wing (-1.34%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-1.24%), and Chicken Breast (-0.44%).
Our average Commodity Price Index is up 1.47% this week and 8 categories see increases as well. It is becoming harder to infer how that will impact specific Wholesale categories as we are seeing more and more inverse correlations, but you have to think that this means general Wholesale trends will continue to be up. There may be some categories with big drops like Beef Strip Loin this week, but those will be the outliers.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +0.3% | -15.4% | -6.7% |
| Shell Eggs | +155.6% | +18.5% | 0% |
| Pork Loin | +137% | +7.4% | +3.1% |
| Pork Shoulder | +44.9% | -20% | -18.8% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +101.5% | +67.9% | +15.3% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +206.6% | -1.2% | +1.7% |
| Chicken Breast | +37.1% | -6.1% | -3.7% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +32.4% | +0.5% | +2.4% |
| Fresh Onion | +115.3% | +5.4% | -1.2% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +0.2% | -0.6% | -13.6% |
| Chicken Wing | -2.6% | -11.4% | -2.8% |
| Cod | +46.1% | +3.7% | +3.8% |
| Wholesale | +30.7% | -1.2% | -5% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
A big drop in Commodity (-4.89%) pulls Wholesale down (-5.72%) instead of the increase we expected. We expect both categories to be flat or up next week.
Shell Eggs
A slight increase in Wholesale (+0.26%) as anticipated. Another small increase in Commodity (+0.54%) points to Wholesale being flat to up next week.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (+3.11%) and Commodity (-3.43%) continue to diverge. Hard to tell how long this trend will last, but we'll bet that Wholesale will be flat to up near term.
Pork Shoulder
As expected, another big bump in Wholesale (+8.67%). A corresponding increase in Commodity (+2.77%) points towards more increases in the future.
Fresh Lettuce
Prices continue to shoot skyward across the board with Wholesale up 3.03% and Commodity up 6.90%. The only thing that may flatten this out is lower seasonal demand for salads, so look for more increases to come.
Fresh Potatoes
A jump in Commodity (+4.88%) helps push up Wholesale (+2.74%) instead of the drop we expected. It is likely that both trend flat to up near term.
Chicken Breast
Commodity (-2.74%) drops after weeks of increases and that helps keep Wholesale down slightly (-0.44%). If Commodity stays flat looks for Wholesale to be flat to down.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-1.24%) dropped slightly while commodity (+6.19%) was up significantly. Expect wholesale to be up next week.
Fresh Onion
Last week's big drop in Commodity was reversed with a 13.30% increase this week and that helped drive up Wholesale (+2.00%) as well. Expect flat to up next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Price whiplash continues with an unexpected drop in Wholesale (-7.99%) and a drop in Commodity (-3.21%). Will things stabilize and stay flat to down next week?
Chicken Wing
Still not seeing the continued increases in Wholesale (-1.34%) we expect, even as Commodity (+1.04%) continues to increase. Have to expect that the price increases are going to be passed on soon.
Cod
Wholesale (+0.35%) stayed relatively flat as expected while Commodity (+6.92%) bounced back up as expected. Look for Wholesale to be flat to up.
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