Market Trends: Wholesale Pork Drops 9%, Produce Now Up 50% Last 12 Months
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Earlier this year, restaurant operators had some bright spots in ingredient costs with Beef and Produce not seeing as huge of increases as Pork and Chicken. That’s really changed in the past couple of months. Pork had been skyrocketing again but is down 9% this week. It still is up 34% in the past 12 months which makes Beef (+10% YoY) and Chicken (+11% YoY) seem like better protein options. Produce is now up 50% in the past 12 months and up 9% in the last month. This week our average Wholesale Price Index is down 1.78%, but again there is a lot of variation across product categories so pay attention to what’s happening with your order guide.
Average Wholesale prices are up in five categories this week. Fresh Lettuce (+5.73%) sees the biggest increase with Fresh Potatoes (+1.80%) also up significantly. The rest of the product categories with increases are up just slightly, including Ground Beef (+0.67%), Fresh Onion (+0.25%), and Chicken Breast (+0.15%).
Pork categories have the largest drops this week as Pork Shoulder is down 11.35% and Pork Loin is down 6.19%. The other categories have smaller decreases including Shell Eggs (-3.79%), Beef Strip Loin (-2.02%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-0.91%), Cod (-0.34%), and Chicken Wings (0.00%, which will give credit as a decrease in this inflationary world).
The average Commodity Price Index is up 2.42% with 6 product categories seeing average Commodity price increases, so look for average Wholesale prices to be up next week. If you are switching to fall/winter menus, definitely recalculate your menu prices to take into account current trends and the likelihood that Wholesale prices will be higher by the end of the year.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +1.4% | -8% | +1.1% |
| Shell Eggs | +79.5% | +12.6% | +16.6% |
| Pork Loin | +16% | +8.8% | -27.7% |
| Pork Shoulder | +61.6% | +20.7% | -22.8% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +33.7% | +16.8% | +33.4% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +113% | +4.8% | -1.9% |
| Chicken Breast | +21.5% | -1.6% | -2% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +45.2% | -2.2% | -1.5% |
| Fresh Onion | +54.7% | +0.8% | +6.9% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +13.8% | +26.2% | -2.5% |
| Chicken Wing | +0.4% | -9.4% | -4.4% |
| Cod | +39.7% | +3.4% | +1.5% |
| Wholesale | +22.2% | +7.4% | -5.6% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Commodity (+8.48%) bounces back big after last week's drop. That helped keep Wholesale (+0.67%) pretty flat instead of dropping as expected. Look for Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (-3.79%) unexpectedly drops as Commodity (-0.07%) stays flat. Still a pretty big gap comparatively between Wholesale and Commodity, so we think Wholesale will be flat to down near term.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (-6.19%) takes a big drop we didn't see coming. Commodity (-0.42%) is flat. What's next? We think it will be flat to up.
Pork Shoulder
We should have gone with the fact that there is a comparatively large gap between Wholesale and Commodity and predicted a drop...we didn't. Wholesale (-11.35%) down big! But, Commodity (+6.72%) spikes so look for Wholesale to be up next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Rocketship built of lettuce? Wholesale (+5.73%) but Commodity (+28.48%) goes stratospheric. That's going to make sure Wholesale doesn't slow down any time soon.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (+1.80%) goes up more than predicted, while Commodity (-2.86%) drops. That should pull Wholesale to flat to down next week.
Chicken Breast
A small increase in Wholesale (+0.15%) as expected. Commodity (+0.81%) is up slightly which means Wholesale should be flat to up near term.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-2.58%) falls unexpectedly while Commodity (+0.23%) stays relatively flat. Expect Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Fresh Onion
Slight increase in Wholesale (+0.25%) as expected, but a big drop in Commodity (-12.74%) means Wholesale should be down next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (-2.02%) continues to come down and the bigger drop in Commodity (-7.04%) means the decreases are likely to continue for at least a few weeks.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (0.00%) stays completely flat with another week of increases in Commodity (+1.19%). Wholesale is going to head up soon.
Cod
Wholesale (-0.34%) comes slightly down as expected. Commodity (+7.33%) continues to yo-yo so look for Wholesale to be up next week.
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