Market Trends: Wholesale Prices are All Over the Place! Lettuce up 10%, Pork Shoulder Down 7%
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Producer Price Index and shows food up 2%, but as we see with our numbers this week you really have to look at it on a product-by-product basis because average Wholesale prices are all over the place. The combined average Wholesale Price Index stayed relatively flat, down just 0.66%, with 6 product categories seeing increases and 6 seeing decreases. As a restaurant operator, you need to keep a close eye on your specific menu ingredients, because the impacts on your bottom line can be widely variable right now.
Your biggest increase in average Wholesale price is Fresh Lettuce (+10.17%) with Pork Loin (+3.40%), Shell Eggs (+2.48%), Fresh Onion (+1.65%), Cod (+1.01%), and Ground Beef (+0.94%) seeing lower but still significant increases. Average Commodity prices went up in 4 of these categories, so increases will likely continue next week.
Pork Shoulder (-6.68%) sees the biggest drop in average Wholesale price, followed by Beef Strip Loin (-3.83%), Fresh Bell Pepper (-2.58%), Chicken Wing (-2.51%), Chicken Breast (-1.20%), and Fresh Potato (-0.42%). Only Beef Strip Loin and Fresh Potato saw drops in Commodity which means look for increases in the rest.
Our Average Commodity Price Index dropped 1.45% this week, but that is heavily driven by the large decrease in Beef. Eight product categories see increases in average Commodity price so we expect to see a general upward trend next week.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | +1.7% | -3.8% | -1.2% |
| Shell Eggs | +85.1% | +22.1% | +31.4% |
| Pork Loin | +25.6% | -0.7% | -16.3% |
| Pork Shoulder | +78% | +50.1% | -5.3% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +29.1% | +20.9% | +31% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +87.3% | +3.3% | -1.2% |
| Chicken Breast | +21.3% | -6.6% | -0.5% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +52.9% | +1.3% | +3.3% |
| Fresh Onion | +52.4% | +12.6% | +2.6% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +17.8% | +29.8% | +2.7% |
| Chicken Wing | -0.2% | -10.9% | -3.6% |
| Cod | +43.3% | +2.4% | +2.2% |
| Wholesale | +25.3% | +9.7% | -0.5% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (+0.94%) bumps slightly up as expected, but a big drop in Commodity (-9.49%) should pull down Wholesale next week.
Shell Eggs
Commodity (+0.98%) remains relatively flat while Wholesale (+2.48%) increases, though less than in past weeks. Look for Wholesale to continue to flatten.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (+3.40%) bounces back after recent declines while Commodity (+0.07%) remains flat. Wholesale will likely stay flat to up near term.
Pork Shoulder
One more week of Wholesale (-6.68%) drops, but Commodity (+1.15%) continues to trend upward. Expect Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Time to take salads off the menu? Wholesale (+10.17%) spikes again this week and Commodity (+14.44%) is going to continue to push that higher near term.
Fresh Potatoes
Commodity (-1.04%) falls again and pulls Wholesale (-0.42%) down as well. Both appear to be flattening out so expect future prices to be flat to down.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-1.20%) drops as expected, but an increase in Commodity (+5.44%) points to higher Wholesale prices coming soon.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (-2.58%) falls unexpectedly while Commodity (+0.23%) stays relatively flat. Expect Wholesale to be flat to up next week.
Fresh Onion
Maybe the assumptions about supply aren't correct, as Commodity spikes 14.35% and Wholesale (+1.65%) increases as well. The Commodity jump will likely mean at least one more week of Wholesale increases.
Beef Strip Loin
A big drop in Commodity (-6.79%) brings down Wholesale (-3.83%) too. Wholesale is up 17% YoY, so if Commodity continues to fall, Wholesale has room to drop.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-2.51%) continues to fall despite Commodity (+0.30%) increases. We expect that to reverse soon.
Cod
Wholesale (+1.01% ) increases as expected, but surprising considering the big drop in Commodity (-7.89%). Look for Wholesale to be down next week, barring a huge spike in Commodity.
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