Market Trends: New Year Brings a 4% Jump in Average Wholesale Prices
Get to know how food prices have changed and where they are going with your Market Trends Report. Each week we’ll show you how both Wholesale and Commodity prices have changed. We’ll also include an analysis of how we expect Wholesale prices to change over the coming weeks to help you make the best purchasing decisions, all for free.
Market Overview
Well, we’ve been saying that increasing average Commodity prices were going to bring a jump in Wholesale prices for restaurant operators and that’s definitely the case this week. The average Wholesale Price Index is up 4% while the average Commodity Price Index is up 2%. It is still a mixed bag as there are six categories with increases in Wholesale price and six categories with decreases. You still need to keep an eye on a specific category and even SKU trends to make sure you understand the impact that week has on your profits.
After a number of weeks of decreases, we see both Pork categories with huge increases that helped to drive up the overall Wholesale average. Pork Shoulder jumps 11.54% and Pork Loin is right behind at 11.36%. We also see large Wholesale price increases in Cod (+9.51%), Shell Eggs (+7.71%), Fresh Bell Pepper (+7.56%), and Beef Strip Loin (+6.20%).
There are some bright spots as Wholesale Fresh Lettuce (-14.06%) continues to come back down to earth with additional decreases in Chicken Breast (-3.01%), Fresh Potato (-2.55%), Chicken Wing (-0.78%), Ground Beef (-0.41%), and Fresh Onion (-0.03%). Outside of Fresh Lettuce, the rest of these categories have increased in their Commodity prices, so expect those trends to reverse.
The unexpected spikes in Wholesale Pork along with expected increases in Beef and Chicken means that restaurant operators are unlikely to see much relief in their center-of-plate costs. Produce may see some relief, as average Wholesale is down 5% in the past month. It may be a new year, but the trend of needing to increase menu prices to keep pace with ingredient costs is not likely to end soon.
Wholesale Price Changes
| Category | 12 Months | 3 Months | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef | -5.9% | -7.5% | -3.2% |
| Shell Eggs | +120.2% | +34.6% | +17.4% |
| Pork Loin | +106.4% | -25.3% | +5% |
| Pork Shoulder | +30.5% | -33.9% | +8.9% |
| Fresh Lettuce | +14.5% | +21.4% | -18.5% |
| Fresh Potatoes | +28.2% | -10.3% | -6.6% |
| Chicken Breast | +15.7% | -2.5% | -4.9% |
| Fresh Bell Pepper | +20.1% | +5.5% | +7.8% |
| Fresh Onion | +42.1% | +3.8% | -3.2% |
| Beef Strip Loin | +27.2% | -23.8% | +6.9% |
| Chicken Wing | -7.3% | -10.6% | -2.3% |
| Cod | +42.4% | +17% | +9.5% |
| Wholesale | +20.8% | -13.4% | 0% |
Category Trends
Ground Beef
Wholesale (-0.41%) drops slightly as expected. A big jump in Commodity (+7.61%) points to Wholesale increasing sharply near term.
Shell Eggs
Wholesale (+7.71%) continues to increase significantly more than Commodity (+0.64%). This will continue until the artificially high prices impact demand.
Pork Loin
Wholesale (+11.36%) unexpectedly spikes even as Commodity (-3.21%) falls, bringing back bad memories of previous weeks. Unsure if this will be a long-term or a short-term divergence of trends.
Pork Shoulder
We expected a bump in Wholesale (+11.54%) but not this big. Another increase in Commodity (+2.18%) means you should expect more of the same next week.
Fresh Lettuce
Commodity (-16.16%) continues to plummet and thankfully pulls Wholesale (-14.06%) down with it. We still have a long way to get back to the prices we saw in the fall, so this could continue for a number of weeks.
Fresh Potatoes
Wholesale (-2.55%) drops as expected. An increase in Commodity (+2.08%) makes it likely that Wholesale will be flat to up in the near term.
Chicken Breast
Wholesale (-3.01%) remains depressed as Commodity (+3.20%) rises. Be ready for the rebound.
Fresh Bell Pepper
Wholesale (+7.56%) increases as predicted. Commodity (+0.85%) is up just slightly. Expect Wholesale to trend up next week.
Fresh Onion
Commodity (+37.93%) bounces back huge after recent drops. Wholesale (+0.23%) isn't hugely impacted yet, but look for it to be up next week.
Beef Strip Loin
Wholesale (+6.20%) jumps as expected. Commodity (+3.81%) increases again so look for Wholesale to continue to climb.
Chicken Wing
Wholesale (-0.78%) is down slightly despite another increase in Commodity (+1.82%). The correction is coming.
Cod
Completely missed this prediction as Wholesale (+9.51%) and Commodity (+9.00%) see big increases. Will guess they bounce back down slightly, but your guess may be as good as ours.
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